Prediction of Kosuke Shibano vs Harry Roberts at M15 Tauranga 15 Dec 2025

• Kosuke Shibano's second serve points win percentage is slightly below that of Harry Roberts, at 45.83% compared to Roberts’ 46.81%. Does this make a significant difference in this matchup? It could be a slight edge for Roberts.
• When considering recent return game stats, Shibano captures 20.55% of opponents' second serve points, while Roberts impressively wins 46.67%. This strong return game favors Roberts significantly.
• On first serve returns, Shibano has a slight advantage over Roberts, winning 25.81% compared to Roberts’ 22.61%. Could this offset other disparities? Potentially, but the margin is slim.
• Both players have shown identical prowess in saving breakpoints, with each saving 44.83% in recent form. In tricky situations, both perform equally well under pressure.
• Over the past year, Shibano has a better match win rate of 50% compared to Roberts' 40.74%. How does past performance influence current predictions? It suggests a slight preference for Shibano.
• Both players’ best surface is Hard, boasting a win percentage of 55%. This neutral factor doesn't tilt the odds noticeably in favor of either player.
• Shibano's previous year's opponents had an average rank of 189.42, while Roberts’ opponents averaged a higher rank of 43.63. Does facing higher-ranked opponents prepare Roberts better? It may give him a resilience edge.
• If the match extends to a deciding set, Roberts shows robustness with a 44% win rate in such circumstances, compared to Shibano’s 20%. This could decisively play in Roberts’ favor.

Editorial Prediction (December 14, 2025, UTC):

Harry Roberts showcases a slightly superior second serve point win percentage over Kosuke Shibano, which could provide a slight edge early in the matchup. Furthermore, Roberts’ exceptional return game, particularly on his opponent’s second serve, is a notable strength that may disrupt Shibano’s play.

Kosuke Shibano maintains competitive pressure under breakpoint situations, matching Roberts equally with a 44.83% save rate. However, in terms of win-loss records over the past year, Shibano seems to have a narrow advantage with a 50% win rate, though this is tempered by the level of players they have competed against.

When encountering high-stakes scenarios like deciding sets, Roberts’ higher success rate indicates he might perform better under pressure. Additionally, past experience against higher-ranked opponents could suggest Roberts has faced a tougher competitive field, potentially bolstering his readiness for this match.

Considering all factors, particularly Roberts’ superior second serve return performance and ability to clinch deciding sets, Harry Roberts emerges as the likely contender to secure a victory in their upcoming tennis match.